Stepney Futures – Independent analysis of the global commodity markets.

Asia Officials Dispute Savings Glut Theory
Asian officials and scholars say lax U.S. financial regulation is to blame for the financial crisis, rather than their countries' high savings rates.

Rising Job Losses Damp Recovery Hopes
Job losses accelerated last month and the unemployment rate rose to 9.5%, casting doubt on the U.S. economy's ability to rebound soon.

Merkel Seeks End to Cycle of Crises
Germany's Merkel will urge G-8 leaders to break the cycle of bubbles and crises by tempering economic growth and taming financial markets when good times return.

Stagnant Pay Stalls Potential Recovery
Employers shed 467,000 jobs last month. People also worked less and their pay stagnated, threatening the strength of a potential recovery in the second half of the year.

Even Teachers Feel Pinch of Downturn
Education jobs -- once considered recession proof -- grew steadily in recent years, but the number of teaching jobs has declined in four of the last six months.

Euro-Zone Unemployment Hits 9.5%
The ECB kept its key rate at a record low 1% and signaled it is unlikely to cut rates further or launch new lending programs soon.

No Decision Yet on More Stimulus
White House economists have discussed whether more economic stimulus will be needed, but they won't make the decision until at least the fall.

EU Outlines Derivatives Revamp
The European Commission outlined measures it is considering to improve the safety and transparency of Europe's over-the-counter derivatives trade.

Euro-Zone Retail Sales Slip in May
Retail sales in the 16 countries that use the euro resumed their long decline in May, having risen in April.

New York City Sees Slide in Tourism
New York City, one of the world's most visited places, is seeing a downward slide in tourism this summer even as it battles other economic woes.

California Lays Plans to Issue IOUs
California's top accountant said the state would begin issuing IOUs to creditors after lawmakers failed to meet its deadline this week to close a massive budget deficit.

Indonesia Lowers Key Rate
Bank Indonesia cut its overnight benchmark rate, but signaled room for further easing is limited and that it would implement a "more cautious" policy.

Manufacturing Stabilizes; Labor Is Still Weak
Declines in U.S. manufacturing activity slowed last month, which may point to growth in the second half of the year. But separate reports showed the labor market remains weak, an obstacle to recovery.

Strapped States Play for Time
States turned to stopgap measures to keep operating after seven failed to enact budgets before their new fiscal year began.

Decline in Euro-Zone Output Slows
The contraction in euro-zone output slowed for the fourth consecutive month in June, but a stronger decline in the services sector suggests the region's recovery will be gradual.

U.K. Credit Conditions Improve
U.K. banks and other institutions modestly increased lending to the corporate sector in the second quarter, a Bank of England survey showed.

Australia Trade Deficit Widens
Australia posted its largest trade deficit since July 2008 in May as export receipts remained in freefall as the global economic slowdown cuts demand for commodities.

Moody's Downgrades Irish Government Debt
Moody's stripped Ireland of its coveted Aaa government bond ratings amid mounting worries about the country's public finances and the cost of the government's bailout of the banking system.

Bond-Market Finance Takes Hold
Europe is seeing an unprecedented rise in companies' use of bond markets, rather than banks, to raise money.

Unemployment in Euro Zone Hits 10-Year High
The unemployment rate in the 16 countries that use the euro rose more than expected and to the highest level for a decade in May.

Incentives Buoy German Auto Sales
New-car registrations in Germany are expected to total more than 3.5 million vehicles this year, boosted by government-initiated scrapping incentives.

Cities Grow at Suburbs' Expense
U.S. cities are holding onto their populations with a mix of people trapped in homes they can't sell and those who prefer urban digs over more distant McMansions.

U.S. Expands Aid to Homeowners
The Obama administration is expanding the number of borrowers who can refinance home loans under its housing-rescue program.

India Economy May Grow 7.75%
India's economy may grow as fast as 7.75% this fiscal year, but the expansion will hinge on how fast the U.S. and the global economy recover, a government survey said.

Some Hard-Hit States Get Less Stimulus
Some of the states worst hit by the recession are getting far less federal economic-stimulus money per person than states faring better.

ADB Sees Emerging Asia Recovery
Developing Asia has hit the bottom of the global downturn and is in transition from recession to recovery, the chief economist of the Asian Development Bank said.

Home Prices Drop at Slower Pace
Home prices eased their slide in April, but rising unemployment and shaky consumer confidence weigh on prospects for a recovery in the housing market and broader U.S. economy.

Vietnam Stimulus Raises Red Flags
Economists fear Vietnam's resilient economy masks serious problems, as loose state-directed lending risks a new speculative bubble.

Glitch Inflated Home-Sales Data
The California Association of Realtors expects to make sharp downward revisions in its recent monthly reports of soaring home sales in the San Diego area, after finding errors in its data.

Beijing Seeks More Influence in IMF
China will move towards reconciliation with the IMF, agreeing to disagree about its controversial currency policy as it seeks to influence the organization.

U.K. and EU Notch Gains
The U.K. received promising economic data, while revised figures for the euro zone suggest the continent's recovery may be proceeding at a slower pace.

Seoul Reports Trade Record
South Korea reported a record June trade surplus, marking one of the biggest signs yet that the global economic downturn is doing less damage here than in most other advanced countries.

China's Manufacturing Ticks Up
China's manufacturing ticked up in June from the previous month, helping drive a recovery in the country's economy.

Japan Gets New Economy Minister
Japan's Aso appointed Yoshimasa Hayashi as economy minister, adding a fresh face to his cabinet ahead of general elections.

Crisis Curbs Migration of Workers
The global crisis is hitting immigrants particularly hard and slowing international migration, the OECD said.